UK Advertising Forecast to Reach Record £14.0bn in Festive Quarter
Published: 29 Oct 2026
UK ad investment grew 11.0% to £12.3bn in Q2 2026, with full-year spend now forecast to hit £51.3bn
London, October 29, 2026: The latest Advertising Association/WARC Expenditure Report
forecasts UK advertising investment will reach £14.0bn in Q4 2026, up 8.2% year-on-year, as advertising continues to support economic growth in the UK.
The report also confirms strong performance in the second quarter of 2026, with advertising investment rising by 11.0% year-on-year to £12.3bn. Looking ahead, total advertising expenditure for 2026 is now forecast to reach £51.3bn, a 9.9% increase on the previous year. A further 6.5% rise is projected for 2027, taking total spend to £54.7bn.
Q2 2026 in detail
The new figures reveal strong momentum in Q2 2026 across the UK advertising landscape, with total ad investment rising 11.0% to £12.3bn.
Retail media commanded an 8.4% share of total advertising investment, growing 31.2% year-on-year, as the channel continued to open up more touchpoints along the consumer journey. Cinema also posted strong growth of 24.5% year-on-year in Q2 2026, due to major releases including The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, and Toy Story 5.
Double-digit growth was recorded across several other channels, including social media (22.2%), out of home (12.7%) and addressable TV (12.7%). Smaller but still positive gains were seen for search (9.3%), direct mail (4.5%), online classified (4.4%), digital radio (3.2%) and TV (2.6%).
Festive Season Outlook
Advertising investment across the festive period is set to reach £14.0bn, a £1.06bn boost on last year, as advertising investment climbs by 8.2% year-on-year.
Advertising continues to play a vital role in supporting the UK economy, as festive campaigns rollout across a range of channels. Social media is projected to rise 18.5% year-on-year, alongside retail media (16.2%) and addressable TV (15.1%). Cinema (8.6%) and search (7.8%) are both set to continue to see growth throughout the festive period.
Increased high-street footfall during the golden quarter is set to benefit out of home (OOH), forecast to grow 7.5%, with digital OOH up 9.5%. Further gains are anticipated for digital radio (4.7%), direct mail (1.8%), total TV (1.6%) and online classified (1.6%).
Expectations for full-year 2026 and 2027
Advertising investment growth is expected to moderate in the second half of 2026 and further into 2027, rising by 9.9% overall this year and 6.5% next year.
Full-year UK advertising investment for 2026 is forecast to reach £51.3bn, an upward revision of 1.8 percentage points on the July 2026 forecast. Growth will be led by retail media (23.0%), social media (20.7%) and addressable TV (14.7%), with further gains expected across out of home (10.8%), search (9.1%), digital radio (9.1%), cinema (6.9%), direct mail (4.1%), and total TV (0.9%).
Looking ahead to 2027, total advertising investment is projected to reach £54.7bn. Key growth drivers include social media (13.3%), retail media (13.0%) and addressable TV (10.9%), alongside continued gains in search (6.6%), digital radio (4.2%), digital OOH (4.3%), and TV (1.7%).
Stephen Woodford, Chief Executive, Advertising Association, said: “As we approach the festive season, UK advertising continues to demonstrate strong growth momentum, with Q4 investment forecast to rise 8.2% year-on-year to £14.0bn. This represents a £1.06bn boost compared to the same period in 2025, underlining the vital role advertising plays across all channels and media formats in supporting business growth during the golden quarter and beyond.”
Suzy Young, Head of Media Data, WARC, said: “Q2 2026 ad investment remained strong despite geopolitical headwinds and weak consumer confidence linked to the Middle East conflict. Growth was boosted by the FIFA World Cup, but increasingly reflects AI investment, as platforms enhance targeting while both new AI-native companies and established tech firms compete for customers – a dynamic that improves efficiency while generating new demand, helping offset weaker sentiment. This AI-driven boost is especially pronounced in the UK, given the maturity of its digital advertising market.”
UK Advertising Expenditure Data Table
MEDIUM |
Q2 2026 |
Q4 2026 |
FY 2026 |
Percentage |
FY 2027 |
Yr-on-yr % change |
Yr-on-yr % change |
Yr-on-yr % change |
Point (pp) forecast diff vs July |
Yr-on-yr % change |
|
Cinema |
24.5% |
8.6% |
6.9% |
+4.8pp |
3.4% |
Direct Mail |
4.5% |
1.8% |
4.1% |
+1.2pp |
0.2% |
Other Online Display* |
-20.7% |
-25.4% |
-17.7% |
+2.0pp |
-26.0% |
Online Classified |
4.4% |
1.6% |
3.2% |
+4.1pp |
1.1% |
Out of Home |
12.7% |
7.5% |
10.8% |
+3.1pp |
3.5% |
of which digital |
14.6% |
9.5% |
12.9% |
+3.8pp |
4.3% |
Published Media |
-4.1% |
-3.5% |
-4.2% |
-1.2pp |
-0.6% |
Magazine Brands |
-3.4% |
-5.2% |
-4.6% |
-1.4pp |
-0.4% |
of which online |
1.3% |
-3.8% |
-0.3% |
-0.6pp |
1.6% |
National News Brands |
-0.7% |
-2.1% |
-2.1% |
-0.5pp |
-1.5% |
of which online |
0.4% |
-0.4% |
-0.2% |
-1.0pp |
0.8% |
Regional News Brands |
-10.3% |
-4.4% |
-7.3% |
-2.5pp |
0.8% |
of which online |
-13.2% |
-4.6% |
-8.7% |
-4.3pp |
3.2% |
Radio |
-4.4% |
-1.3% |
-0.6% |
-3.9pp |
-0.4% |
of which online |
3.2% |
4.7% |
9.1% |
-3.5pp |
4.2% |
Retail Media |
31.2% |
16.2% |
23.0% |
+7.2pp |
13.0% |
Search |
9.3% |
7.8% |
9.1% |
+0.6pp |
6.6% |
Social Media |
22.2% |
18.5% |
20.7% |
+4.2pp |
13.3% |
TV |
2.6% |
1.6% |
0.9% |
-2.8pp |
1.7% |
of which addressable |
12.7% |
15.1% |
14.7% |
+1.2pp |
10.9% |
ALL MEDIA TOTAL |
11.0% |
8.2% |
9.9% |
+1.8pp |
6.5% |
* Excludes display revenues from magazine brands, news brands, radio, retail media, social media and TV. Includes audio, gaming, video outstream, display embedded formats, native advertising and section take-overs.
Source: AA/WARC Expenditure Report, October 2026. Figures extracted strictly from AAWARC Q2 2026 dataset.
Next steps
The Advertising Association and WARC continue to work closely with representative industry bodies to provide a dataset that reflects a deep understanding of the dynamic advertising and media landscape. This latest dataset follows a new breakdown of the figures which was first introduced in April 2026 following consultation with stakeholders.
Categories: Industry News