UK Ad Spend Forecast to Reach £12bn During this Festive Period
Published: 30 Oct 2025
Latest forecasts also project total ad spend will top £46bn in 2025
London, 30 October, 2025: UK advertising spend is expected to increase by 7.3% to a total of £12.0bn in the final quarter of this year, according to the latest Advertising Association/WARC Expenditure Report. The new forecasts, published today, also show that total ad spend is set to rise by 8.2% to £46.0bn during 2025 as a whole and a further 6.6% to almost £50bn (£49.1bn) in 2026.
Festive ad spend
The advertising market is predicted to see an £814m boost compared with the same period in Q4 2024, with advertising continuing to play a vital role in supporting economic growth during the Christmas season.
The UK’s biggest brands are set to unveil their festive campaigns in the coming weeks, driving activity across a range of channels including online formats and Video on Demand (VOD). VOD is forecast to see the largest boost, with spend rising 17.2% year-on-year to £430m in Q4. However, fluctuation is expected in the total TV market due to a decrease in advertiser confidence, dampened by economic uncertainty.
On the high street, cinema (3.7%) and out of home (3.1%) will benefit from festive footfall, with smaller rises also anticipated in direct mail (0.5%) and radio (0.5%), highlighting the significance of Christmas for advertisers and the subsequent benefits to the wider economy. Altogether, online formats are expected to account for 83% of all ad spend during the Golden Quarter, with 40% for search (including retail media) alone.
Reflecting on Q2 2025
The latest figures include actual results collected from media owners for Q2 2025, which shows ad spend rose 9.1% to £11.3bn. Data shows that VOD was the fastest-growing channel, up 23.2% year-on-year to £373m in Q2, whilst cinema had a strong quarter (+19.7%) thanks to releases in April to June including A Minecraft Movie, Lilo & Stitch and Mission Impossible - The Final Reckoning.
Online radio saw double-digit growth, with ad spend increasing by 11.2%, while online magazine brands (4.4%) and direct mail (4.8%) also posted gains during the quarter.
In the first half of 2025 (H1), ad spend increased by 8.9% to £22.0bn. WARC estimates that search and online display formats (including retail and social media) accounted for just over 81% of total ad spend, rising to £17.9bn. This is due, in part, to ongoing investment in AI to drive efficiencies and performance improvement across advertising platforms.
Expectations for FY 2025 and FY 2026
Looking ahead, AA/WARC expects growth to moderate slightly in the second half of 2025 (H2), leading to an increase of 8.2% for the year as a whole. In 2026, UK ad spend is forecast to increase by 6.6% to £49.1bn, with TV expected to return to growth (5.8%) alongside a further increase for radio (2.4%). Online formats are expected to record further growth, with search and online display up 9.2% and 6.7%, respectively.
Despite positive results in the UK’s ad market, the latest report shows business and consumer sentiment has fallen since early summer, with concerns around potential tax increases in November’s budget and above average inflation likely to further undermine confidence.
Stephen Woodford, CEO, Advertising Association, said: “The Christmas advertising season is the key time for brands to inspire shoppers and win share in this critical retail period.
“Our Advertising Pays 2025 report shows every £1 spent on advertising returns £4.11 in profit for medium to large businesses and £1.89 for micro-small businesses, underscoring the importance of advertising investment especially during the festive season. Despite ongoing economic uncertainty and caution in the run up to the November budget, the advertising market is still expected to see growth next year.”
James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC, said: “The latest AA/WARC forecasts show advertisers continuing to tap into consumers’ digital consumption habits, with online formats now accounting for four in every five pounds spent on advertising in the UK. Growth in video on demand services and search – particularly on retail platforms – underscores a prioritisation of digital engagement and its influence on the path to purchase.
“Looking ahead, advertising investment is forecast to rise steadily into the Golden Quarter, and while overall growth is expected to moderate slightly in 2026, the latest figures suggest a stable trajectory for the UK’s ad market despite a languid economy.”
Media |
Q2 2025 |
Q4 2025 forecast |
FY 2025 forecast |
Percentage point (pp) forecast diff |
FY 2026 forecast |
Search |
14.3%* |
11.2% |
12.6% |
+3.2pp |
9.2% |
Online display |
12.1%* |
10.8% |
10.7% |
+1.5pp |
6.7% |
TV |
-4.1% |
-5.2% |
-2.7% |
-1.9pp |
5.8% |
of which VOD |
23.2% |
17.2% |
16.9% |
+6.8pp |
16.6% |
Out of home |
-1.2% |
3.1% |
1.3% |
-1.8pp |
4.1% |
of which digital |
-0.7% |
4.1% |
2.1% |
-1.6pp |
5.3% |
Online classified |
-2.4%* |
-1.6% |
-3.6% |
+1.1pp |
-1.6% |
Direct mail |
4.8% |
0.5% |
0.9% |
+2.5pp |
-1.8% |
National newsbrands |
-4.6% |
-2.9% |
-4.7% |
+0.3pp |
-1.4% |
of which online |
-1.6% |
0.7% |
-1.2% |
+0.5pp |
0.5% |
Radio |
-0.3% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
-1.0pp |
2.4% |
of which online |
11.2% |
10.7% |
12.3% |
+0.1pp |
6.3% |
Magazine brands |
-2.4% |
-4.2% |
-5.1% |
+1.7pp |
-2.8% |
of which online |
4.4% |
-0.3% |
-1.2% |
+5.2pp |
-1.7% |
Regional newsbrands |
-7.8% |
-2.7% |
-5.5% |
-1.2pp |
-0.3% |
of which online |
-2.3% |
0.2% |
-0.4% |
-1.2pp |
2.3% |
Cinema |
19.7% |
3.7% |
11.9% |
+2.9pp |
1.5% |
TOTAL UK ADSPEND |
9.1% |
7.3% |
8.2% |
+1.4pp |
6.6% |
Note: Video on Demand (VOD), digital revenues for newsbrands, magazine brands, and radio are also included within online display and classified totals. Online classified also includes revenues for national and regional newsbrands, as well as B2B magazine brands. Care should be taken to avoid double counting these series. Online radio includes targeted in-stream radio/audio advertising sold by UK commercial radio companies, together with online S&P inventory. TV VOD includes broadcaster (BVOD), advertiser-funded (AVOD) and subscription (SVOD) services which include advertising. |
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*For HY 2025, IAB UK has partnered with Oliver Wyman to deliver its Digital Adspend study. This new collaboration introduces an updated methodology, with all reported data beginning from HY 2025. As a result of this methodological change, it is not possible to reconcile data for search, online display and online classifieds with previous editions.
ENDS
For more information, please contact:
Advertising Association
Matt Bourn, Director of Communications
Mariella Brown, Head of Policy Communications
WARC
Amanda Benfell, Head of PR & Press
T: +44 (0) 20 7467 8125
About the Advertising Association/WARC Expenditure Report
The Advertising Association/WARC quarterly Expenditure Report is the definitive guide to advertising expenditure in the UK. Impartial and independent of any media channel or agency affiliation, it is the only source of historical quarterly ad spend data and forecasts for the different media for the coming eight quarters. With data from 1982, this comprehensive and detailed review of advertising spend includes the AA/WARC’s own quarterly survey of all national newspapers, regional newspaper data collated in conjunction with Local Media Works and magazine statistics from WARC’s own panels. Data for other media channels are compiled in conjunction with UK industry trade bodies and organisations, notably the Internet Advertising Bureau, Outsmart, Radiocentre and the Royal Mail.
All data are net of discounts and include agency commission but exclude production costs. The survey was launched in 1981 and has produced data on a quarterly basis ever since.
Methodology for WARC’s quarterly forecasts
Analysis of annual ad spend data over the past 35 years shows that there is a link between annual changes in GDP and annual changes in ad spend (after allowing for inflation, and excluding recruitment ad spend). Over this period, GDP changes account for about two thirds of the change in ad spend. WARC has developed its own forecasting model to generate forecasts for two years based on assumptions about future economic growth. The model provides an indication of likely overall spend levels – adjusted to allow for short-term factors (Olympics, World Cup etc).
The Expenditure Report (www.warc.com/expenditurereport) launched online in February 2010 and combines data from the discontinued print publications the Quarterly Survey of Advertising Expenditure and the Advertising Forecast. It is relied upon daily by the world’s largest brands, ad agencies, media owners, investment banks and academic institutions. Alongside over 200 readymade tables, subscribers can create their own customised tables for analysis of different media and time periods, as well as track the different media’s share of ad spend. All reports can be exported from the online interface. An annual subscription is priced at £760 for AA members and £1,175 for nonmembers.
About the Advertising Association
The Advertising Association promotes the role and rights of responsible advertising – trusted, inclusive and sustainable – and its value to people, society, businesses and the economy. Responsible businesses understand that there is little point in an advertisement that people cannot trust. That's why, over 50 years ago, the Advertising Association led UK advertising towards a system of independent self-regulation which has since been adopted around the world. There are nearly thirty UK trade associations representing advertising, media, and marketing. Through the Advertising Association they come together with a single voice when speaking to policy makers and influencers.
About WARC – The global authority on marketing effectiveness
For over 35 years WARC has been powering the marketing segment by providing rigorous and unbiased evidence, expertise and guidance to make marketers more effective. Across four platforms - WARC Strategy, WARC Creative, WARC Media, WARC Digital Commerce – its services include 100,000+ case studies, best practice guides, research papers, special reports, advertising trend data, news & opinion articles, as well as awards, events and advisory services. WARC operates out of London, New York, Singapore and Shanghai, servicing a community of over 75,000 marketers in more than 1,300 companies across 100+ markets and collaborates with 50+ industry partners.
WARC is part of Informa Festivals, part of Informa PLC.
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